Sunday, September 15, 2024

Optimistic Guidance Drives A Sharp Rise In The Stock Price (NYSE:SHOP)

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Shopify ( NYSE: SHOP ) has been an incredibly rewarding investment for those lucky enough to get in early after the company's initial public offering ('IPO') in 2015. The shares have delivered a return of 2,600% or 42% annual. Its revenues have grown at 49% per annum since the end of 2014 from $105 million to estimated $8.6 billion in 2024. The massive e-commerce market is a huge opportunity, as the company's growth indicates. As you tell from the chart below, revenues are forecasted to grow above 20% for the next 3 years. Keep in mind, Shopify has been around for more than a decade - and it's still growing at these high rates.

We have owned Shopify for only 2.5 years, establishing our position in the first quarter of 2022 at a cost basis of $60, after the stock collapsed from its highs of $169 in November 2021. In hindsight, our entry may have been a bit premature, as the stock continued to plunge, eventually reaching a low of $27 in October 2022. However, such market movements are inherently unpredictable, and we seized the opportunity to invest in a company we had long admired.

As you can see in the chart below, the drawdowns for SHOP over the past five years have been dramatic, with the stock dropping over 80% in 2022:

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