Sunday, June 9, 2024

Ex-Bengals QB Virgil Carter's Legacy Of EPA, Other Analytics

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It might seem strange that someone who played in the NFL for seven seasons -- with modest success -- would need to deflect blame 48 years after retiring, but Carter is more than a former quarterback.

He is considered one of the founders of modern NFL analytics. And while analytics help coaches make the most informed decisions, they don't guarantee success. ESPN Analytics slightly favored Campbell's decisions, but the executions fell short, so don't blame Carter.

In 1971, Carter and Northwestern professor Robert Machol published a three-page paper called "Operations Research on Football." The study included two important concepts -- different yard lines and situations on the field carried different expected point values, and teams should be more aggressive in certain fourth-down situations.

"A lot of what's in that paper is literally the same thing that's being done now," said Michael Lopez, the NFL's senior director of football data and analytics. "The numbers have changed because football's evolved, but just the idea that that existed so far before people got onto it, I think it's pretty neat."

CARTER WAS SELECTED in the sixth round of the 1967 draft by the Chicago Bears , but he was not a typical rookie.

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